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Tropical storms pose a significant risk to coastal populations, including those throughout the Caribbean and along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of North America. The impact of climate change on tropical storms is multifaceted, and patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) change may play a role in shaping future tropical storm risk. While the SST fingerprints associated with changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may be uncertain, the North Atlantic Warming Hole (NAWH) and enhanced SST warming near the Gulf Stream are robust features of both past and projected future climate change. Here we use the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) to highlight the remote contributions of both of these potential SST fingerprints of AMOC decline to changes in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis potential in the Atlantic basin, and thus to uncertainty in future coastal climate risk. Both the NAWH and enhanced warming near the Gulf Stream lead to significant changes in TC genesis potential, particularly in the western North Atlantic (between Bermuda and the Bahamas), the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, where changes are on the order of ±10% over the full Atlantic hurricane season, with considerably stronger responses focused in the two halves of the season. Diagnosis of the Genesis Potential Index (GPI) indicates that changes in mid-tropospheric humidity and vertical wind shear are the most important factors driving these responses. The simulated changes in GPI occur in regions of considerable historical TC genesis, highlighting the need to further understand the historical and projected future patterns of SST change in the North Atlantic Ocean, including their relationship to AMOC and its potential decline. 

The brevity of the instrumental record limits our knowledge of tropical cyclone activity on multidecadal to longer timescales and hampers our ability to diagnose climatic controls. Sedimentary archives containing event beds provide essential data on tropical cyclone activity over centuries and millennia. This review highlights the advantages and limitations of this approach and how these reconstructions have illuminated patterns of tropical cyclone activity and potential climate drivers over the last millennium. Key elements to developing high-quality reconstructions include confident attribution of event beds to tropical cyclones, assessing the potential role of other mechanisms, and evaluating the potential influence of geomorphic changes, sea-level variations, and sediment supply on a settings’ susceptibility to event bed deposition. Millennium-long histories of severe tropical cyclone occurrence are now available from many locations in the western North Atlantic and western North Pacific, revealing clear regional shifts in activity likely related to intervals of large-scale ocean-atmosphere reorganization.▪Prior to significant human influence in Earth's climate, natural climate variability dramatically altered patterns of tropical cyclone activity.▪For some regions (e.g., The Bahamas and the Marshall Islands), earlier intervals of tropical cyclone activity exceeded what humans have experienced during the recent period of instrumental measurements (∼1850 CE–present).▪Risk assessments based on the short instrumental record likely underestimate the threat posed by tropical cyclones in many regions.▪Changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation associated with the Little Ice Age (∼1400–1800 CE) resulted in significant regional changes in tropical cyclone activity.▪Given the past sensitivity of tropical cyclone activity to climate change, we should anticipate regional shifts in tropical cyclone activity in response to ongoing anthropogenic warming of the planet. 

Abstract Glacial isostatic adjustment produces crustal deformation capable of altering the slope of the landscape and diverting surface water drainage, thereby modulating the hydraulic conditions that govern river evolution. These effects can be especially important near the margins of ice sheets. In Maine, USA, post-glacial changes in sedimentation within major river systems have been interpreted as the result of regional tilting and drainage rerouting due to glacial isostatic adjustment. In this study, we model isostatic adjustment driven by retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, quantify the associated tilting and drainage rerouting, and explore how these changes impacted sediment transport in Maine's rivers. Through an analysis of changes to river slope and drainage area produced by glacial isostatic adjustment, we show that ice sheet retreat altered the median sediment grain size that rivers could entrain. We also find support for previous estimates of the timing and direction of drainage reversal at Moosehead Lake, Maine's largest lake. Our results suggest that the history of sedimentation in Maine's rivers reflects time-dependent effects of glacial isostatic adjustment that are superimposed on any changes in runoff associated with deglaciation. Further, our case study demonstrates that isostatic adjustment affects alluvial channel evolution and sediment delivery to the coastline for several millennia after an ice sheet retreats. 

Tropical cyclone (TC) models indicate that continued planet warming will likely increase the global proportion of powerful TCs (specifically Categories 4 and 5 hurricanes), increasingly jeopardizing low-lying coastal communities and resources such as the Pelican Cays, Belize. The combination of increased coastal development and continued relative sea-level rise puts these communities at even higher risk of damage from TCs. The short TC observational record for the western Caribbean hampers the extensive study of TC activity on centennial timescales, which hinders our ability to fully understand past TC climatology and improve the accuracy of TC models. To better assess TC risk, paleotempestological studies are necessary to put future scenarios in perspective. Here, we present a high-resolution reconstruction of coarser-grained sediment deposits associated with TC (predominately ≥ Category 2 hurricanes) passages over the past 1200 years from Elbow and Lagoon Cays, two coral reef-bounded lagoons at the northern and southern end of the Pelican Cays; the most southern Belizean paleotempestological site to date. Coincident timing of historic storms with statistically significant coarser-grained deposits within cay lagoon sediment cores allows us to determine which historic TCs likely generated event layers (tempestites) archived in the sediment record. Our compilation frequency analysis indicates one active interval (above-normal TC activity) from 1740-1950 CE and one quiet interval (below-normal TC activity) from 850-1018 CE. The active and quiet intervals in the Pelican Cays composite record are anticorrelated with those from nearby and re-analyzed TC records to the north, including the Great Blue Hole (∼100 km north) and the Northeast Yucatan (∼380 km northwest). This site-specific anticorrelation in TC activity along the western Caribbean indicates that we cannot rely on any one single TC record to represent regional TC activity. However, we cannot discount that these anticorrelated periods between the western Caribbean sites are due to randomness. To confirm that the anticorrelation in TC activity among sites from the western Caribbean is indeed a function of climate change and not randomness, an integration of more records and TC model simulations over the past millennium is necessary to assess the significance of centennial-scale variability in TC activity recorded in reconstructions from the western Caribbean. 

Abstract Despite increased Atlantic hurricane risk, projected trends in hurricane frequency in the warming climate are still highly uncertain, mainly due to short instrumental record that limits our understanding of hurricane activity and its relationship to climate. Here we extend the record to the last millennium using two independent estimates: a reconstruction from sedimentary paleohurricane records and a statistical model of hurricane activity using sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We find statistically significant agreement between the two estimates and the late 20th century hurricane frequency is within the range seen over the past millennium. Numerical simulations using a hurricane-permitting climate model suggest that hurricane activity was likely driven by endogenous climate variability and linked to anomalous SSTs of warm Atlantic and cold Pacific. Volcanic eruptions can induce peaks in hurricane activity, but such peaks would likely be too weak to be detected in the proxy record due to large endogenous variability. 

Sediment cores from blue holes have emerged as a promising tool for extending the record of long‐term tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, interpreting this archive is challenging because storm surge depends on many parameters including TC intensity, track, and size. In this study, we use climatological‐hydrodynamic modeling to interpret paleohurricane sediment records between 1851 and 2016 and assess the storm surge risk for Long Island in The Bahamas. As the historical TC data from 1988 to 2016 is too limited to estimate the surge risk for this area, we use historical event attribution in paleorecords paired with synthetic storm modeling to estimate TC parameters that are often lacking in earlier historical records (i.e., the radius of maximum wind for storms before 1988). We then reconstruct storm surges at the sediment site for a longer time period of 1851–2016 (the extent of hurricane Best Track records). The reconstructed surges are used to verify and bias‐correct the climatological‐hydrodynamic modeling results. The analysis reveals a significant risk for Long Island in The Bahamas, with an estimated 500‐year stormtide of around 1.63 ± 0.26 m, slightly exceeding the largest recorded level at site between 1988 and 2015. Finally, we apply the bias‐corrected climatological‐hydrodynamic modeling to quantify the surge risk under two carbon emission scenarios. Due to sea level rise and TC climatology change, the 500‐year stormtide would become 2.69 ± 0.50 and 3.29 ± 0.82 m for SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, respectively by the end of the 21st century. 

Sinkholes develop on carbonate landscapes when caves collapse and can subsequently become lake-like environments if they are flooded by local groundwater. Sediment cores retrieved from sinkholes have yielded high-resolution reconstructions of past environmental change, hydroclimate, and hurricane activity. However, our understanding of the internal sedimentary processes of these systems remains incomplete. Here, we use a multiproxy approach including sedimentology (stratigraphy, coarse-grained particle density, bulk organic matter content), micropaleontology (ostracods), and geochemistry (δ13C and δ2H on n-alkanoic acids) to reconstruct evidence for paleolimnology and regional hydroclimate from a continuous stratigraphic record (Emerald Pond sinkhole) in the northern Bahamas that spans the middle to late Holocene. Basal peat at 8.9 m below modern sea level documents the maximum sea-level position at ~ 8200 cal. yr BP. Subsequent upward vertical migration of the local aquifer caused by regional sea-level rise promoted carbonate-marl deposition from ~ 8300 to 1700 cal. yr BP. A shift in coarse particle deposition and ostracods at 5500 cal. yr BP suggests some environmental change, which may be related to one or multiple internal or external drivers. Sapropel deposition from ~ 1700 to 1300 cal. yr BP indicates a fundamental change in limnology to promote increased organic matter preservation, perhaps related to the regional cooling during the Dark Ages Cold Period. We find δ2H28 values are largely invariant from 7700 to 6150 cal. yr BP suggesting a generally stable hydroclimate (mean − 133‰, 1σ = 5‰). The shift to more depleted values (− 156‰, 1σ = 19‰) at ~ 6000–4800 cal. yr BP may be linked to a weakened (eastern displaced) North Atlantic Subtropical High. Nevertheless, additional local hydroclimate records are needed to better disentangle uncertainties from either internal or external influences on the resultant measurements. 

Abstract The collapse of the Maya civilization in the late 1st/early 2nd millennium CE has been attributed to multiple internal and external causes including overpopulation, increased warfare, and environmental deterioration. Yet the role hurricanes may have played in the fracturing of Maya socio-political networks, site abandonment, and cultural reconfiguration remains unexplored. Here we present a 2200 yearlong hurricane record developed from sediment recovered from a flooded cenote on the northeastern Yucatan peninsula. The sediment archive contains fine grain autogenic carbonate interspersed with anomalous deposits of coarse carbonate material that we interpret as evidence of local hurricane activity. This interpretation is supported by the correlation between the multi-decadal distribution of recent coarse beds and the temporal distribution of modern regional landfalling storms. In total, this record allows us to reconstruct the variable hurricane conditions impacting the northern lowland Maya during the Late Preclassic, Classic, and Postclassic Periods. Strikingly, persistent above-average hurricane frequency between ~ 700 and 1450 CE encompasses the Maya Terminal Classic Phase, the declines of Chichén Itza, Cobá, and subsequent rise and fall of the Mayapán Confederacy. This suggests that hurricanes may have posed an additional environmental stressor necessary of consideration when examining the Postclassic transformation of northern Maya polities. 

Dissolution of carbonate platforms, like The Bahamas, throughout Quaternary sea-level oscillations have created mature karst landscapes that can include sinkholes and off-shore blue holes. These karst features are flooded by saline oceanic waters and meteoric-influenced groundwaters, which creates unique groundwater environments and ecosystems. Little is known about the modern benthic meiofauna, like foraminifera, in these environments or how internal hydrographic characteristics of salinity, dissolved oxygen, or pH may influence benthic habitat viability. Here we compare the total benthic foraminiferal distributions in sediment-water interface samples collected from <2 m water depth on the carbonate tidal flats, and the two subtidal blue holes Freshwater River Blue Hole and Meredith’s Blue Hole, on the leeward margin of Great Abaco Island, The Bahamas. All samples are dominated by miliolid foraminifera (i.e.,QuinqueloculinaandTriloculina), yet notable differences emerge in the secondary taxa between these two environments that allows identification of two assemblages: a Carbonate Tidal Flats Assemblage (CTFA) vs. a Blue Hole Assemblage (BHA). The CTFA includes abundant common shallow-water lagoon foraminifera (e.g.,Peneroplis,Rosalina,Rotorbis), while the BHA has higher proportions of foraminifera that are known to tolerate stressful environmental conditions of brackish and dysoxic waters elsewhere (e.g.,Pseudoeponides,Cribroelphidium,Ammonia). We also observe how the hydrographic differences between subtidal blue holes can promote different benthic habitats for foraminifera, and this is observed through differences in both agglutinated and hyaline fauna. The unique hydrographic conditions in subtidal blue holes make them great laboratories for assessing the response of benthic foraminiferal communities to extreme environmental conditions (e.g., low pH, dysoxia).